It’s been seven seasons since the 16th Region produced a state champion, when Boyd County won the State Tournament in 2001.

What are the chances that drought could end this season?

Greenup County is the clear favorite in the region, having won every game against a region opponent and 13 straight overall.

The Musketeers made the trip to Lexington’s Applebee’s Park last season as the region’s representative. But, if they do that again, could they win it all?

Let’s break this down by the numbers first (through Sunday).

Sixteenth region teams have a 172-177 overall record. Outside of the region, they are 71-76.

The top four teams in the region right now are Greenup County, East Carter, Ashland and Bath County, based on overall and region records.

Quite a few people would probably put Boyd County right there in the mix too. The Lions are 13-15, but have only played seven games within the region, in which they are 5-2.

The closest any 16th region team has come to beating Greenup County was Ashland on April 30. Caleb Rigsby and Tyler Hieneman dueled as Hieneman prevailed in a 2-0 win for the Musketeers.

Of the teams that have made legitimate cases of having a chance to win the region, who has the best chance to make a run?

If Ashland’s pitching can continue to allow 3.6 runs per game, as it has to this point, the Tomcats may have the best shot to take the region title and have a chance at going to Applebee’s Park.

Rigsby and closer Chase Adkins provide quite a one-two punch for the Tomcats. Left-hander Sam Hunter has also made some noise from the mound. If Cris Duvall and Nick Jackson can carry the load on offense, Ashland is a team to watch out for.

East Carter struggled early in the season, but has played more like it was supposed to lately.

Before losing four in a row, the Raiders had won 10 of 11 games. Eddie Seagraves and Ryan Sagraves are the catalysts for the Raiders’ pitching staff.

Sagraves battled some injuries mid-season but is back on the mound.

Tyler Clay could become a factor as well, as he was on April 22 against Rowan County, when he gave up just one run in a complete game in which he threw just 58 pitches.

Boyd County needs more of what Logan Helms has done at the plate lately. In a 10-1 win over Clark County on May 3, Helms drove in six runs, including a grand slam. He drove in four more runs on May 5 against Russell.

If Helms, who has suffered from tendonitis in his pitching arm, can get healthy enough to pitch again, he could be the key to the Lions’ success in postseason play.

The Lions are just 5-12 versus Kentucky opponents outside of the 16th region, but those teams have a combined winning percentage of .623.

Bath County has played only 16 games this season. The Wildcats are 11-5 and 8-2 in the region, but Raceland is probably the best team they have played this season.

Not to write them off, but Roy Wright’s squad will have to prove a little more before they can really be considered a serious contender.

Now to Greenup County.

The Musketeers began the season as a contender for the 16th region title, but now they are the clear front-runner.

They are outscoring opponents by an average of more than four runs per game.

The offense has been strong for the Musketeers, especially in regional games, but the pitching just keeps getting better.

Tyler Hieneman and Dakotah Greenslate are not only the two best pitchers for Greenup County, they could be the top two pitchers in the region.

Hieneman has been mowing over opponents lately. His latest victim was Ballard, the twelfth ranked team in the state. He gave up just one hit and struck out twelve in the victory.

The Musketeers’ lineup is pretty solid from top to bottom. Eric Craft is a good leadoff hitter, Hieneman has been swinging the bat well lately and Billy Logan is a leader behind the plate and at the plate.

Using the same philosophy as I used with Boyd County, Greenup County is 15-6 against Kentucky opponents outside of the region, with those teams owning a combined .552 winning percentage.

That’s a pretty good record and a pretty good indicator of how things could pan out for the postseason.

Greenup County is not the only team that has a chance, but every sign is pointing toward a 16th region championship.

No matter who takes the region, the victor will have to win the sectional game before making a trip to Applebee’s Park.

AARON SNYDER can be reached at asnyder@dailyindependent.com.