FRANKFORT — Barring some major surprise, Kentucky will vote for Mitt Romney for president and at least five of six incumbent congressmen will be re-elected on Nov. 6. The state Senate will remain in Republican hands.

But Republicans set out early this election to take control of the state House of Representatives. They face a tall order, needing a net gain of 10 seats to reverse Democrats’ current 58-41 with one vacancy.

If House Minority Leader Jeff Hoover’s party somehow manages to do that, they’ll likely make most of their gains in western Kentucky where there are seven key contested races, four of them for open seats.

But Republicans are facing challenges in some districts where they didn’t expect them and Democrats are better funded. Democratic House Speaker Greg Stumbo and his caucus began raising money early and Gov. Steve Beshear has supplied an additional infusion of money from his left-over campaign funds from his easy 2011 re-election.

“All our candidates have met their budget projections and we have money to help them,” Stumbo said, adding that the caucus still has $250,000 in the bank. “I don’t intend to have any money in the account on the day after the election.”

Republican U.S. Senators Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul have held some fundraisers for House candidates and donated from their own coffers, but they’ve concentrated on their own interests, according to Danny Briscoe, a Democratic consultant who is not working in any House campaigns this year.

McConnell has been busy amassing $10 million for his 2014 re-election campaign while Paul has used his PAC money to support Republican U.S. Senate candidates in other states and to help Kentucky Republican congressional campaigns of Andy Barr in the 6th District and Thomas Massie in the 4th.

“There’s no question we’re being outspent,” said Republican House Whip Danny Ford, “but our candidates have done a good job of raising money and our caucus has money to help in races we feel re competitive.”

Republicans are hopeful because they see an unpopular president at the top of the Democratic ticket and they’ve worked hard to tie Democrats to Barack Obama. But Stumbo doesn’t think that works for them.

“Their effort to drag down our incumbents with an unpopular President Obama is not working,” Stumbo said. “It probably has an effect in some open seats where it’s harder for challengers to get over that.”

Ford disagrees: “Obama is definitely going to have an effect. Romney will carry Kentucky by a large margin and that has to play in favor of our candidates.”

The battleground is in western Kentucky, Democratic by registration but increasingly Republican by voting patterns in federal and state senate elections. Ford says Republicans “are definitely in pretty decent shape in three of those – and I hope in all four.”

Here are capsule looks at those key open seat races:

-2nd District, Graves County, part of McCracken County: Democrat Kelly Whitaker, a pharmacist, grew up in Republican Laurel County and lives in rural Graves County near Fancy Farm where she made a positive impression during the annual political picnic there. She faces Republican Richard Heath of Mayfield, owner of Heath Building Materials and a former teacher. The district was previously represented by Democrat Fred Nesler who left the General Assembly to take a job in the Department of Agriculture.

-3rd District, Paducah: Republican Josh Crockett is manager of a string of radio stations and has pumped $90,000 of his own money into the race. He is opposed by Democrat Gerald Watkins, a former Paducah city commissioner and instructor at West Kentucky Community and Technical College. Incumbent Republican Brent Housman isn’t seeking re-election.

-4th District, Caldwell, Crittenden, Livingston counties, part of McCracken: The seat is vacated by the retiring Democrat Mike Cherry: Democrat Raymond Giannini faces Republican Lynn Belcher who lost to Cherry two years ago in a district where Democrats outnumber registered Republicans.

-5th District, Calloway County, part of Trigg: Democratic incumbent Melvin Henley is retiring. Republican Kenny Imes was in the General Assembly nearly four decades ago. Then, he was a registered Democrat but like Henley who once ran as a Republican, Imes has switched parties, just in the other direction. Democrat Hal Kemp owns a Dairy Queen and lost a 2006 seat for the House.

Republicans are also eyeing two western Kentucky seats where incumbent Democrats are running for re-election. In the 7th, which covers Union County and parts of Daviess and Henderson counties, Republican Tim Kline, an attorney, is challenging Democrat John Arnold of Sturgis, an 18-year veteran in the House.

And, in the 13th in Owensboro, Independent Bill Barron, a commercial developer active in civic organizations, is challenging Democrat Jim Glenn, a professor at Owensboro Community College. Barron, while running as an independent, has said he will caucus with Republicans.

Republicans also see opportunities against Democratic incumbents Martha Jane King in Logan and Todd counties and Linda Belcher in Bullitt County and an open seat in northern Kentucky previously represented by Democrat Royce Adams. Some Democrats in central Kentucky worry the bitter congressional race between Barr and Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler may be hurting a couple of incumbents, Susan Westrom and Ruth Ann Palumbo in Lexington.

But Republicans are facing some challenges they didn’t expect: Democrat Joseph Heath of Bardstown is giving incumbent Republican David Floyd a strong challenge in the 50th and in Clark and Madison counties, Democrat JoEllen Reed is pushing first-term Republican incumbent Donna Mayfield.

The GOP was already facing tough fights in the 38th where first-term Republican Mike Nemes is being challenged by Denny Butler, whose father Denver Butler held the seat for years. And Democrats think they have a good chance of re-taking the 62nd in Scott County from first-term Republican Ryan Quarles who is facing Charlie Hoffman who Quarles beat two years ago.

Stumbo said Republican hopes of a large net gain are overblown because Democrats are posing tough challenges to some Republican incumbents.

“As of today, we’ve got a pretty good chance of picking up three or four seats they hold,” he said. “They might win that many from us in other places, but in the end it’ll probably be a wash.”

Ford says Republicans “definitely will have some gains this year and I feel like those will more than normal.”

RONNIE ELLIS writes for CNHI News Service and is based in Frankfort. Reach him at rellis@cnhi.com. Follow CNHI News Service stories on Twitter at www.twitter.com/cnhifrankfort.