Frankfort, Ky. — By Ronnie Ellis

CNHI News Service



FRANKFORT, Ky. – This isn’t the way Trey Grayson expected the U.S. Senate race to unfold. Bowling Green eye surgeon Rand Paul has upset Grayson’s apple cart.



Paul reported raising over $1 million in the past three months, utilizing his father’s network of libertarian-leaning internet contributors to do it. Grayson hasn’t done a bad job himself, raising just over that amount in two quarters. And while Paul’s carefully tailored message – focused entirely on bailouts and deficit spending but carefully avoiding the implications of voting against any unbalanced budget, his isolationist views on foreign policy, or the minimalist role of government – has resonated with some conservatives, Grayson remains the preference of most establishment Republicans.



If fiscal restraint were all Kentucky Republicans sought, they would not have so easily abandoned incumbent Republican Jim Bunning. What they really want is to win – and they see Grayson as their best shot at doing that. That can change over the course of a campaign, of course, but right now that’s where most Republicans are.



Grayson skillfully and artfully positioned himself for the campaign without alienating Bunning, a long-time friend who Grayson often calls a mentor. But he expected to cruise through a lopsided Republican primary once Bunning bowed to the pressure of polls and the party’s heavyweights like Mitch McConnell, who didn’t think Bunning could be re-elected. Even when Paul entered the race, the Grayson camp first saw him as more of an inconvenience than a serious threat. But that’s changing.



Grayson’s supporters correctly note that their candidate has had only six months to raise money, that many influential Republican donors sat on the sideline until Bunning withdrew, and that he has raised more money overall than Paul. They say Paul’s money is coming through internet donors who don’t live or vote in Kentucky while 92 percent of Grayson’s donors are in Kentucky. But one thing they can’t explain away: Paul raised over $1 million in one quarter, almost double what Grayson raised in the same time period.



Paul’s entry into the race in a conservative state where Republicans are united in their opposition to national Democratic policies and President Barack Obama also forces Grayson to be careful to burnish his own conservative positions. Some of those same Republicans who see Grayson as their strongest candidate harbor some anxiety that the former Democrat really isn’t conservative enough. Paul is likely to use his money to attack Grayson on conservative issues, forcing Grayson to respond, running more to the right than he might otherwise have chosen to do.



Even if Grayson prevails in the primary, such attacks would force him to spend money he’d hoped to have for the fall campaign. Grayson will have to soothe doubts about his conservative credentials – and that could alienate some of the independents and moderate Democrats who see Grayson as their favorite Republican and someone they can support. Those voters are at least part of what makes Grayson the type of candidate more likely to hold onto the seat.



The good news for both Grayson and Paul is that 2010 appears right now to be shaping up as a Republican year – especially in Kentucky – and the campaigns of the two leading Democratic candidates seem to take turns imploding. But the May primary is seven months away and things sometimes change quickly in politics. In the meantime, Paul will have to defend some of his positions that upon reflection Kentucky Republicans may not find so attractive and Grayson will have to prove he’s a conservative Republican in a conservative state.



But it’s not quite the way Grayson had it planned.



Ronnie Ellis writes for CNHI News Service and is based in Frankfort, Ky. He may be contacted by email at rellis@cnhi.com. Follow CNHI News Service stories on Twitter at www.twitter.com/cnhifrankfort.