Ronnie Ellis
Frankfort, Ky. — Mitch McConnell and Steve Beshear want you to believe Republican Jimmy Higdon’s victory in the special election in the 14th Senate election Tuesday was all about voters’ disgruntlement with what’s occurring in Washington.
State Sen. Robert Stivers, R-Manchester, who helped advise Higdon on campaign strategy in a district with a 2-1 Democratic registration advantage while being vastly outspent by the other side, says it’s not quite that simple.
By touting Higdon’s “nationalizing the race,” McConnell buttresses his position as the leader of the opposition in Washington on health care and cap and trade and he deflects criticism of his party from Republican horse interests who blame Senate President David Williams, R-Burkesville, for blocking expanded gambling legislation. He can say to the horsemen, “We didn’t run against gambling. We ran against Obama.”
Beshear can deflect responsibility, both for failure to deliver the seat to Democrats and thus narrow the Republican edge in the state Senate and for failure to build support for gambling. He can say, “See, it wasn’t about gambling and it wasn’t about me.”
But, at least in part, it was.
That’s not to say national issues didn’t play a significant role. Higdon ran a bunch of ads on those issues (which as Democratic Floor Leader Ed Worley, D-Richmond, pointed out are scarcely affected by a state senator). Higdon credits national issues for contributing to his win as does Stivers. But Stivers gives most of the credit to Higdon himself – he’s well-known and well-liked in the district. He worked hard and ran an effective campaign.
But it was also about Beshear. Beshear’s poll numbers had already dipped to 39 percent before the election. As Stivers said, some in the district resented how the election came about with Beshear appointing a Republican, Sen. Dan Kelly, to the bench. As Higdon said, some in the district resented the enormous amount of money spent on behalf of his opponent, former Democratic legislator Jody Haydon. Stivers thinks the total may reach $1.9 million when outside interests’ contributions are calculated. (One has to ask how Beshear and Democrats can’t win a 24 percent turnout election with that kind of money.)
“If money can buy an election, then this one is bought and paid for by outside interests,” Higdon said before the election. “But people see through that,” he added.
There was something else going on – just like in the August special election in the 18th District, an election created by another Beshear appointment of a Republican Senator to a lucrative state job. Democrat Robin Webb won that race, but not by as much as she might have against a first-time, inexperienced candidate who was unprepared for the tough personal attacks he encountered. In both races, there was a feeling among some – Democrats as well as Republicans – that “we don’t need someone picking our senator for us.”
There were other factors: the Right to Life endorsement for Higdon counted in a district with lots of Catholics and some charitable gambling organizations feared competition from slots at the tracks. Some just opposed expanded gambling while others want a constitutional referendum. Higdon got his supporters to the polls.
Nationalizing the race proved to be smart strategy and it obviously played a part in Higdon’s win. But, as Stivers said, no one issue decides such races. It’s in McConnell’s and Beshear’s interests to credit the national issues exclusively for Higdon’s win. But even Beshear’s political advisors can see the governor – and prospects for slots at the tracks – are weaker in the aftermath.
RONNIE ELLIS writes for CNHI News Service and is based in Frankfort. Reach him at rellis@cnhi.com. Follow CNHI News Service stories on Twitter at www.twitter.com/cnhifrankfort.
