FRANKFORT — Greg Stumbo is right. That doesn’t mean he’ll prevail.

Stumbo, the Democratic Speaker of the House, wants state lawmakers to re-draw the First Congressional District to make it more geographically compatible. The district stretches from the Mississippi River, along the Ohio River to Henderson and the Tennessee line to Clinton County. Then it snakes northward to capture Casey County and part of Lincoln County.

The one-time “Gibraltar of the Democracy” is represented by Republican Ed Whitfield and those southern and central Kentucky counties included in the district bolster Republican prospects. But the genie escaped the bottle back in 1990. Democratic Second District Congressman William H. Natcher of Bowling Green wanted to keep Daviess County in his district when moving it to the First would have made the First fit population requirements. Lawmakers had to compensate by extending the district south of Natcher’s district and take in Allen and Simpson counties.

Natcher was unbeatable. He didn’t bother to raise money or run television ads. He sent congratulatory letters to every high school graduate in his district and his campaigns consisted of visiting towns in his district and walking around the local square shaking a few hands. But then the man who had never missed a roll-call vote died in office. Republican Ron Lewis shocked the political establishment and captured the seat in a special election that presaged the 1994 Republican revolution. Whitfield then won his First District seat. So in the next re-districting it was stretched northward on its eastern end to capture still more Republican voters.

Anyone who looks at that map may wonder what residents of Casey County and Lincoln County have in common with Paducah and Fulton. That’s Stumbo’s point. He also points to the elongated Fourth District in northern Kentucky which stretches along the Ohio River from Oldham County to Ashland and is represented by Republican Geoff Davis. Stumbo is the state’s most powerful and prominent eastern Kentucky legislator and he’d like to see the Fifth District, represented by Republican Hal Rogers, pull in those eastern Kentucky counties in the northeast.

Because something makes sense is hardly a reason for politicians to do it, of course. Kentucky’s congressmen, Democrats as well as Republicans, are first interested in safe districts most likely to keep them in office. Because of growth in the Sixth District, represented by Democrat Ben Chandler, it is likely to be compressed around Chandler’s base of Fayette County, a more urban, Democratic-voting area. The other Democrat, John Yarmuth, doesn’t have many worries – his district is the most liberal in the state and anchored by Louisville and pretty safe from much tampering by Republicans to create a more difficult electorate for him.

Since Yarmuth and Chandler are out-numbered in the delegation and the General Assembly is split between a Democratic-controlled House and Republican-controlled Senate, they’re likely to go along with any plan which leaves them alone while preserving Republican advantages in the other four districts. And the two chairmen of the General Assembly committees which will take up re-districting said last week the wishes of the congressional delegation will carry a lot of weight with what the legislature does.

Of course Stumbo’s rationale also takes into account his own political considerations. His plan would add Democratic voters to two districts represented by Republicans – though not likely enough to endanger Whitfield or Rogers. But he might be looking down the road when he might want to run for Congress. And anyway, just because his idea makes sense doesn’t’ mean it will happen.

Ronnie Ellis writes for CNHI News Service and is based in Frankfort, Ky. He may be contacted by email at rellis@cnhi.com. Follow CNHI News Service stories on Twitter at www.twitter.com/cnhifrankfort.