For those Kentucky fans sweating what many are calling a treacherous road to the Final Four, let me attempt to put your minds at ease.
If the Wildcats are unaffected by youth — a quality they have demonstrated by “refusing to lose,” according to Kentucky coach John Calipari — then there aren’t too many teams that possess the necessary ingredients to knock off the East Region’s No. 1 seed.
When Kentucky is on its game and doesn’t hurt itself too much with mistakes, it takes two things to beat them: Net-scorching 3-point shooting and lockdown interior defense that can neutralize both the lane-driving ability of John Wall and inside presences of DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson.
Playing out of their collective minds, the Mississippi State Bulldogs had both of those things Sunday by hitting 10-of-27 3-pointers and hassling Wall’s penetration and Cousins’ output for most of the game. However, they still could not top the Cats.
So, I’ve done some digging to see what East Region teams have the best chance to knock off Kentucky.
Before reading further though, I’ve attached a warning: It is not called March Madness for nothing and, even though it’s cliché, anything can happen on any given night. Statistics don’t always matter, especially between the third Thursday in March and the first Monday in April.
OK. Now we can go on. (Remember, this is only regarding the East Region.)
Kentucky...
Should worry about: Texas, Cornell, New Mexico, West Virginia.
‰At the beginning of the year, a Texas-Kentucky matchup looked like it could be a possible Final Four game. Now, it’s a possibility in the second round. Somewhat scary for the Cats, because the Longhorns present near-equal athleticism, can rebound (42.2 rpg) and shoot almost 35 percent as a team from 3-point range. Cats’ advantage: The Longhorns don’t have near the team continuity that the Cats possess. John Wall would be a key in the matchup.
‰Cornell is a threat because of its 3-point shooting. The Big Red are the best long-ballers in the region, melting nets from the perimeter at a 43.4-percent
clip. Five players on the roster shoot better than 40 percent from long range — an astounding number. Cats’ advantage: While 7-footer Jeff Foote patrols the paint well, the Wildcats are the best rebounding and blocking team in the region, and outrebound Cornell by an average of eight boards per game.
‰New Mexico might be looked at as a long shot to get past the bottom part of the bracket, but if Steve Alford’s Lobos do, watch out. The Lobos may come out on the short end of the stick inside, but Darington Hobson is a versatile guard that averages almost a double-double. This team can shoot 3s as well (37.5 percent). Cats’ advantage: No Lobo can match up with the big body of Cousins.
‰West Virginia has Devin Ebanks to anchor a solid inside game, and Da’Sean Butler to highlight a clutch backcourt. The most well-rounded defensive team on the lower part of the bracket, the Mountaineers may have just enough to knock off Kentucky in the Elite Eight. Cats’ advantage: West Virginia will have to score in different ways to beat the more athletic Wildcats. The Mountaineers are inconsistent with the 3-pointer and have had to depend on Butler to make a shot in the final seconds of the last four games heading into the tourney. Too much to ask against a Cats’ defense that doesn’t allow much to happen in the lane.
Should watch out for: Wake Forest, Temple, Wisconsin, Marquette.
‰Wake Forest is a slightly less stressful matchup than Texas for Cats fans, but athletes are still present. The Demon Deacons are second behind Kentucky in blocked shots in the East Region, and they can rebound (41.8 rpg).
The Wildcats defeated Tim Duncan-led Wake Forest in the Sweet 16 of 1996, when Kentucky won it all.
‰Temple deserved a No. 3 seed, in my opinion, and also deserved an easier first-round matchup than under-seeded Cornell. The Owls present a bevy of problems for any team with their balance and defense. If Juan Fernandez (46.1 3-Pt. FG %) can get hot, the Owls have a post man, LaVoy Allen (6-9, 225), to go along with that, and that can give the Cats problems.
‰Wisconsin is a well-coached, defensive-minded team that does not possess enough talent or athletic ability to quite keep up with Kentucky. The Badgers aren’t strong enough inside, but Trevon Hughes is one of the best guards in this region.
Kentucky last met Wisconsin in 2003, when Marquis Estill led the Wildcats over the Badgers in the Sweet 16.
‰When Cats’ fans think of Marquette, Dwyane Wade’s triple-double in 2003 immediately comes to mind. This year’s Golden Eagles doesn’t have anybody the caliber of Wade, but Lazar Hayward is a stellar player. Marquette can pour in the 3-pointer, but its weakness lies within the post play.
Should be least concerned about: East Tennessee State, Wofford, Washington, Montana, Missouri, Clemson.
‰The best teams in this group are Missouri and Washington, but neither the Tigers nor the Huskies will advance far enough (Regional Final) to face Kentucky. And unless former lightning-fast point guard Tim Smith returns for one more game with East Tennessee State, the Buccaneers can’t pull off the miracle.
Snyder’s Final Four: Ohio State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Duke. Sleeper teams: Baylor, Butler.
Enjoy the Madness.
AARON SNYDER can be reached at asnyder@dailyindependent.com.
or (606) 326-2664.
