Daily Independent (Ashland, KY)

Local Sports

December 23, 2009

MARK MAYNARD: Strictly by the numbers 12/24/09

They say that numbers don’t lie.

The good folks of whatifsports.com crunched the numbers for all 34 bowl matchups this season, playing each game 1,000 times (Where do you sign up for that job?) and then spitting out an average score.

Based on those numbers, it could be a disappointing weekend for Marshall and Kentucky fans.

Ohio University defeats Marshall 21-18 in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl in the Motor City on Saturday afternoon despite 116 yards rushing from Darius Marshall, the Herd running back who is awarded Player of the Game.

Here’s what the Web site said about the game:

-Highlight: In what seems like perhaps the most lackluster matchup of the bunch, the Bobcats cap off a hot finish to the season by beating the Thundering Herd.

-Player of the Game: Darius Marshall, RB, Marshall (116 yards rushing, 1 TD)

-Winning percentage: Ohio 58.4 percent; Marshall 41.6 percent.

The chances that Kentucky would be playing a sweet tune in the Music City Bowl on Sunday in Nashville are even less promising.

Whatifsports.com says Clemson dominates UK 27-13, based on the statistical date of the two teams.

Here’s what the Web site said about that game:

-Highlight: Heisman snub C.J. Spiller runs all over one of the nation’s worst rushing defenses as Clemson puts up one of the biggest routs of the bowl season.

-Player of the Game: Spiller, RB, Clemson (139 total yards, 115 yards rushing, 1 TD)

-Winning Percentage: Clemson 80.2 percent; Kentucky 19.8 percent.

Of course, remember, the nerds of whatifsports.com don’t factor in fans, emotions or coaching.

It’s hard to say what all that means for Marshall or Kentucky (actually it means nothing).

The Herd is playing its first bowl since 2004 and may be determined to prove that the late-season flop was a fluke. Marshall goes into the bowl game 6-6, so a loss sends it under .500.

Marshall has already hired Doc Holliday to replace Mark Snyder as head coach but he will be nothing more than a very interested bystander in Detroit (even though he may be aching to put on the headset).

Kentucky has had time to get over the overtime loss to Tennessee that would have made a good season a great season. Still, the Cats seem to like being able to play well in bowl games and especially bowl games in Nashville. UK can win its fourth consecutive bowl game by defeating Clemson which, for the second time in four years, is none too excited about being a part of the Music City Bowl (or at least the Tigers’ fans are feeling that way).

Kentucky defeated Clemson in the 2007 Music City Bowl to start the current bowl winning streak.

If the Cats win, they finish 8-5 and leave with more good vibes for coach Rich Brooks to build upon. A loss, like the whatifsports.com nerds are predicting, means a 7-6 downer.

But Marshall and Kentucky fans should relax. Predictions like the ones from the number-crunchers aren’t iron clad.

But just for fun, here is how a few others are expected to play out according to the Web site:

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL: Virginia Tech 26, Tennessee 17

ROSE BOWL: Oregon 22, Ohio State 13

SUGAR BOWL: Cincinnati 24, Florida 21

GATOR BOWL: WVU 28, Florida State 16

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: Alabama 22, Texas 13

So there you have it. Happy watching and may the force be with your favorite team this bowl season.

MARK MAYNARD can be reached at mmaynard@dailyindependent.com or (606) 326-2648.





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